What's the real story behind the recent turmoil in the supply chain industry? Join us as we uncover the truth with Jason Miller, a full professor at Michigan State University. This episode kicks off with Jason's riveting analysis of a Census Bureau graph showing dramatic shifts in manufacturing plants' material supply since 2021. By leveraging economic theory and robust data, Jason debunks common industry myths and reveals the profound implications of these trends for retailers and logistics professionals alike.

Ever wondered how the trucking industry cycles through boom and bust periods? We trace the intricate dynamics of freight demand and spot rates over the past decade, shining a spotlight on pivotal moments like the 2019 bear market and the COVID-19 surge. Jason illuminates how consumer spending spikes, influenced by government stimulus, led to current market normalization challenges. We also dissect the overlooked impacts of trade wars and domestic demand, offering a nuanced perspective on global manufacturing export trends and their ripple effects across the supply chain.

Seasonality in logistics and the evolving landscape of the trucking industry take center stage as we explore the impact of fluctuating demand for frozen desserts and the growth of non-employer trucking businesses. Jason provides a compelling contrast between large carriers and owner-operators, highlighting their unique challenges and the surprising resilience of smaller firms. We wrap up with an insightful discussion on forecasting models like ARIMA, their predictive prowess, and their limitations during volatile periods. This episode is a treasure trove of expert insights for anyone navigating the complexities of the modern supply chain.